The 23rd Annual Spencer Lecture

Thank you to Herbert Crowther ’17 who delivered this morning's 23rd Annual Spencer Lecture to students, guests, faculty, and staff at the Upper School. Herbert is an analyst at Eurasia Group, a geopolitical advisory firm, and is a member of their Energy, Climate, and Resources team. 

Herbert opened with a shout-out to one of his teachers, Mr. Alan Cate, the Chair of the History department, in whose class, "Strategy, Diplomacy, and War," he saw a glimpse of his future career, only somewhat joking, "In many ways, this is my ultimate final exam for Mr. Cate."  In that class at that time, the general feeling in the world was that major conflicts were on their way out. Now, he said, there is more uncertainty.

Herbert made clear that he planned this as a purely analytical, not normative, discussion, and that he was speaking on behalf of himself only, and not for Eurasia Group. 

He discussed what he defined as three major structural shifts in the international political environment of the last decade: The new uncertainty and less consensus on how to respond and relate to China; the increasing unpredictability of the U.S.; and the multiple invasions and clashes today that major conflicts are no longer unimaginable, with few clear paths to resolution. 

Herbert shared his conclusions, offering one perspective on how students and citizens can think about and relate to these geopolitical shifts: 1) Geopolitics are becoming fundamentally more unpredictable and volatile and there is a great need for careful and conscientious thinking on these issues by a new generation of people. 2) At the core, the two biggest factors to all of this are U.S. domestic politics and U.S.- China relations, and that "everyone here has an opportunity to be involved in both of those things." 3) "It's up to you! If something seems apparent to you, write it down—send it to me, write your college essay about it." There is a real need for more people to engage constructively on these issues and help us find a productive equilibrium to our geopolitical challenges.

US thanks Herbert for being so thoughtful and generous with his time in preparing and giving this lecture, and for answering questions from the students and faculty at the conclusion. 

Watch a recording of Herbert's lecture here. 

Herbert is an analyst at Eurasia Group, a geopolitical advisory firm, and is a member of their Energy, Climate, and Resources team. His focus areas include the domestic politics of the energy transition in China and the US, the US-China energy/climate relationship, and multilateral climate negotiations. Herbert has been with Eurasia Group since 2020, consulting for a wide range of clients.

Herbert was a 2023 Schwarzman Scholar at Tsinghua University in Beijing, where his thesis on the political drivers of China's energy transition was named the Outstanding Capstone and later published in expanded form with the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. He has also published public analyses on the international expansion considerations of Chinese renewable energy manufacturers, and has been quoted in publications including the Financial Times, Bloomberg, the South China Morning Post, and the Wire China. In addition to Eurasia Group, Herbert has worked at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources, Rapidan Energy Group, and the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. Read more about Herbert's experience as a Schwarzman Scholar with fellow alumnus Seven Richmond ’18 in this article from the US Journal.

 

The George E. Spencer III Lecture Series honors the life of US alumnus George “Twig” Spencer III ’69. It was founded by his family, classmates, and friends to pay tribute to his caring and adventurous spirit while enhancing awareness and knowledge of international relations, tolerance, and understanding. Twig was at his office in the South Tower of the World Trade Center when the building was struck by the second plane of the attacks of September 11, 2001. As his colleagues began their descent from the 84th floor, above the impact point, Twig told his two friends, "I’ll meet you down there. I just want to make sure the rest of the team is out." Twig is the only known US alumnus to lose his life in the terrorist attacks.